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Daily report Monday – from Xero to profit, ASX 200 to open up, and is retail dead?

The ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) is set to open higher, China and Australia trade tensions to ease, Xero reports and more.

A long way to go for the ASX to bounce back…

Australia’s ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) index climbed slightly higher last week adding 0.25% for the week in spite of rising trade tensions with China, plus the worst trading week in the US for two months, falling 2.6%.

Despite being comparatively unscathed by the worst of COVID-19 the Australian sharemarket remains one of the worst-performing markets in the world, still down some 26% from February highs. That compares to the S&P 500 which is down just 11.92%.

With limited overseas leads, comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry overnight highlighting that both China and Australia have benefitted from the free trade agreement should be enough to the market rally after a week of increasingly aggressive trade accusations.

  • Retail’s death knell

    It shouldn’t come as a surprise but many commentators, including UBS, are suggesting COVID-19 will be the death knell for much of traditional retail that was previously in the ’emergency room’. UBS analysts predict over 100,000 retail stores will close in the next five years, even those of more successful businesses. This call came as US retail spending fell 16.4% in April and department store JC Penney (JCP) filed for bankruptcy.

    As reported as last week, US industrial production fell 11.2%, the lowest recording in 100 years. Meanwhile, unemployment surged to 14.7% with women the worst hit, increasing to 16.2%. With lockdowns easing the threat of a second wave begins to increase, which would be devastating for any sign of recovery.

    Xero reports

    Fast-growing small business accounting platform Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) reported a maiden full-year profit, albeit just $3.3 million after-tax on revenue of $718 million.

    Importantly, Xero’s free cash flow improved over 30% to $27.1 million, ensuring the company has the cash to pay its bills.

    Shaver Shop (ASX: SSG) shares rose nearly 30% last week as it announced online sales had quadrupled compared to previous years with same-store sales to April up a further 17.8%.

    Another US tech giant managed to rally despite reporting weaker results, with Cisco’s (CSCO) revenue falling 8% and another 10% drop forecast in the June quarter. The company, which provides traditional communication infrastructure equipment including routers to very large businesses, happened to purchase Webex a video conferencing platform, for $3.2 billion just a few years ago.

    After poor performances, the company announced Webex had hosted 25 billion minutes of meetings in April, triple that of February and six times more than Microsoft’s Team’s platform.

    The daily report is written by Drew Meredith, Financial Adviser and Director of Wattle Partners.

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