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Perhaps the assumption that markets are still anchored by predictable economic policies needs to be challenged. For the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall, political volatility – once background noise – is potentially reshaping investment risk at a structural level.
Movie-goers return after pandemic lull, but streaming stocks still dominate
Box office movie theatres are showing early signs of life with audiences returning to cinemas after a two-year pandemic-related drought. Despite only a handful of big releases coming through this summer, box office revenues in Australia and the US have risen sharply, with 2023 shaping up for a significant rebound.
While cities are bustling with office workers and schools teeming with kids, movie cinemas are only just starting to experience the post-covid rebound.
Vice president of research at Wall Street Horizon, Christine Short, conducted research on box office numbers and entertainment data for California over the last year.
“A full return to normal leaves less in the way of free time for busy families across the country, but it’s important to take time to unplug,” Short said. “How about a trip to the movie theatre? Or, if you are like so many consumers who bought a big screen TV during the pandemic, that will do just fine too.”
Findings from the report show Netflix and The Walt Disney Company well ahead in the movie release count for the remainder of the year with 35 and 25 movies respectively.
“Netflix continues to dominate the pop culture scene. The streaming giant has a track record of scoring an increasing number of Academy Award nominations in recent years, too”, the report explained.
Despite early signs of a movie theatre recovery, share prices in movie stocks – outside of streaming services – are still down and yet to reflect a rise in box office numbers. A sustained recovery could see investors buying back into movie stocks like AMC, Warner Brothers or IMAX Corp while they rest near their 52-week lows.
With movie theatres shutting up shop for the last two years, many shifted to streaming platforms and began releasing films directly to consumers. Hollywood studios used to play by the same rules by sticking to a 90-day theatrical window before home release. That no longer exists. It has been replaced by a leaner, 45-day version.
“The movie landscape continues to turn more toward at-home versus in-theatre, but the Communication Services stock is down a whopping 63 per cent so far in 2022,” the report highlighted.
The Australian box office recorded similar trends with movie goers returning to cinemas to see new release movies.
According to data from the Event Hospitality and Entertainment presentation, Australian box office revenue numbers increased by 73.4 per cent.
Event Hospitality and Entertainment chief executive officer Jane Hastings told reporters that she saw a return to cinemas across all demographics. “Eight titles were released that grossed over $20 million compared to only $5 million in the prior year and 2 of the top 5 highest grossing titles of all time in the Australian market,” she said.
According to Hastings, revenue was back in line with pre-pandemic levels and movie goers were keen to get back into cinemas to see blockbuster titles.
“For the two key trading months of December and June, the group box office revenue was back in line with pre-COVID levels. And in June, the group’s box office revenue exceeded June by 9.7 per cent. It’s clear to see, and it’s obvious to see in the results, when blockbusters are released customers want to see them on the big screen at the cinema.”
