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Perhaps the assumption that markets are still anchored by predictable economic policies needs to be challenged. For the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall, political volatility – once background noise – is potentially reshaping investment risk at a structural level.
WiseTech investors remain loyal post founder’s ignominious exit
When the global logistics software leader WiseTech’s (ASX:WTC) former CEO and founder Richard White (pictured) fell on his sword in October last year amid damaging revelations about his personal life, the company’s share price was not immune.
Over the space of a little more than a week, it fell about 25 per cent to drop below three figures, closing at $99.37 on October 24.
But shareholders can sometimes be a forgiving lot. They are still in love with the WiseTech story – it’s a leading developer and provider of software solutions for the world’s supply chains – quickly pushing its share price back above its pre-White implosion price to close at its high for the past year at $138.93. Although it has softened since to close on Tuesday at $124.50, its shares are trading around 100 times forecast 2025 earnings a share – about six times the average S&P/ASX 200 company.
This demand for WiseTech scrip is despite the fact the board is still searching for a replacement for White – a former musician, he repaired guitars for AC/FC and The Angels – and the commercial launch of Container Transport Optimisation, one of three breakthrough products announced in its 2024 financial year results, being delayed.
While ComplianceWise has been successfully released and CargoWise remains broadly on track, recent organisational changes and media attention have impacted the timeline for Container Transport Optimisation, pushing its launch to the second half of 2025.
The company now anticipates 2025 revenue between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion, representing between 15 per cent and 25 per cent revenue growth compared with 2024, down from its original guidance of between $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion. EBITDA is expected to land between $600 and $660 million, reflecting growth of between 21 per cent and 33 per cent compared with 2024.
Despite the revised guidance, shareholders can still find several positives for WiseTech’s continued growth and market position.
Strong margin performance: The company expects to maintain robust EBITDA margins of about 50 per cent for 2025, demonstrating its ability to scale efficiently while investing in innovation – a slight improvement compared with 2024.
Global market leadership: WiseTech continues to dominate the logistics software sector, serving more than 17,000 customers across 183 countries, including 46 of the top 50 global third-party logistics providers and all the top 25 global freight forwarders. This extensive market penetration provides a stable foundation for recurring revenue and future growth.
Innovation pipeline: The company’s commitment to innovation remains strong, with more than 5,600 product enhancements delivered to its CargoWise platform in the past five years. The successful rollout of ComplianceWise and the ongoing development of CargoWise Next demonstrate its ability to execute on its product strategy, despite the temporary setback with Container Transport Optimization.
There are some warning signs for shareholders, especially for a stock trading on such a high multiple. It will need to successfully bed down the Container Transport Optimization launch – sooner rather than later.
But more importantly the board will need to decide on White’s replacement who will come to the task in the shadow of his predecessor’s legacy as founder and who will still be in the building as a consultant.
Replacing a successful founding chief executive officer is never easy, especially one who has taken a software fledgling to a $41 billion company over three decades. White’s replacement – and the board – will do well to consider that track record when the inevitable changes start coming under the new regime.
