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Australian consumers are showing real signs the largest and longest rate hiking cycle in 30 years is starting to bite. It might be the proof the RBA needs to see that its fight against inflation is working, adding further weight to the theory that rate rises are behind us.

With deteriorating economic conditions dampening the banking outlook, some trading momentum may be leaving the sector after a strong two-month run. Six in 10 trades of big-four banks on the Selfwealth platform in July were sell orders, and headwinds are only picking up from here.

Fronting a House economics committee inquiry into competition in the banking industry, the heads of CBA, ANZ, Westpac and NAB insisted they weren’t unfairly setting interest rates and that competition and customer engagement in the sector have never been stronger.

The average annual interest rate on banks’ one- and three- year term deposits has risen to 3.2 per cent from 0.25 per cent over the past year. With markets expecting the official cash rate to peak soon, savers looking to lock in attractive rates will find the best deals with smaller, newer banks, analysts say.

Nearly 32,000 customers of Australia’s four major banks fell victim to scams in the 2022 financial year, bearing 96 per cent of the losses as reimbursement and compensation rates remain extremely low. ASIC is now pushing financial institutions to improve their approaches to scams and better support their customers.

The regulator will look into the discrepancy between the interest rates banks charge borrowers and those they pay depositors, as the RBA’s rate-hiking campaign propels the big four banks toward record profits.

Analysts agree Australia’s big four banks are entering 2023 from a position of strength as they pass on rising interest rates to borrowers. However, headwinds remain, and the total return picture for shareholders looks more complex.

With economists expecting the Australian dollar to strengthen this year, investors are looking to currency-hedged funds to remove FX exposure that threatens to erode the value of their international investments.

Combined cash profits from Australia’s big four banks increased 6.5 per cent to $28.5 billion in FY22, delivering a bumper year ahead of a looming deterioration in economic conditions.

If there was one word to summarise the relationship between the big four banks and interest rates, it would be volatile. In March, the banks rallied after the Reserve Bank of Australia shifted its dovish rhetoric and signalled imminent rate rises to combat inflation. Now with the RBA acting on those increases by most recently passing a 50 basis point increase, big four shares are tumbling over themselves.