Peter Warnes

Morningstar head of equity research Peter Warnes recently laid out a bleak take on the chances of a recession, along with simple rules for investors to follow in the coming economic and market confusion. Simplicity and risk control will be key, as will harnessing sustainable tailwinds.

Corporate profit growth is expected to moderate, especially in sectors focussed on consumer sales, and mining companies have seen large downgrades. Meanwhile, markets are still not fully pricing in the high risk of recession, some analysts say.

Following the reopening of global markets post-Covid, there was a sudden change in macro-economic conditions caused by massive stimulus spending and supply constraints. Central bankers were caught asleep at the wheel, but are now starting to talk tough.

Following the re-opening of global markets post-Covid, there was a sudden change in macro-economic conditions caused by massive stimulus spending and supply constraints. Central bankers were caught asleep at the wheel, while inflation was surging in the background.