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Geff Gebler

Geff Gebler results

How is your porridge?

Too hot, too cold or, just right? It is suggested that this fairy tale has two moral issues, firstly, the sense of entitlement as Goldilocks freely samples the bears’ home and contents and secondly, question of what is ‘just right’. 

Geff Gebler | 6th Jul 2020 | More
What if?

Portfolio construction is a function of possibilities. Equity versus fixed income is the obvious; equity the potential of capital growth, and fixed income the promise of low-yet-secure returns. You can test returns based on evidence from whatever historic time frame you care to choose to prove the point. Click and drag the forecast, QED, quod…

Geff Gebler | 29th Jun 2020 | More
A change in script on emerging markets

A lot of us spend an inordinate amount of time reading through erudite commentators on anything related to markets. ‘Stay informed’ is a common headline logo. Does this collective wisdom improve investment decisions? The current equity rally has a fountain of opinion on why and what it means. Wordplay is part of the fun: FOMA,…

Geff Gebler | 24th Jun 2020 | More
Is big picture small beer?

Great debates on longer term economic trends and the impact on financial markets are often a go-to conversation with investors. Few call up to ask what is the discount rate or cash flow yield, but many have opinions on issue such as debt and globalisation. The latter is a tough topic as globalisation is a…

Geff Gebler | 17th Jun 2020 | More
It’s gotta be bonds?

The toughest asset sector in an investment portfolio is the fixed income. Putting aside the difficulties in convincing an investor to have an allocation to fixed income when the conversation is sprinkled with mind-numbing terms such as duration, curves, and spreads, the even greater problem is low yields. Blind Freddie (rubbery etymology, with likely reference…

Geff Gebler | 11th Jun 2020 | More
  • REITs: victims of fashion

    A dedicated allocation to ASX listed REITs is largely an Australian idiosyncrasy as a legacy from the high weight and structural elements of the property trust sector in its heyday. The 2009 financial crisis should have put paid to the role REITs had in portfolios given their distribution cuts and capital raisings at the time….

    Geff Gebler | 3rd Jun 2020 | More
    Spread is your value factor

    Low interest rates justify high equity PE’s, and that is particularly so for long duration, high growth equities. So goes the story. It’s worked in recent years and therefore the evidence is there to support the pattern. A simpler argument is that low rates push investors into asset classes that can provide relatively higher returns,…

    Geff Gebler | 27th May 2020 | More
    Scrubbing up the application of ESG

    Amongst the headline noise on virus affected financial conditions, it is surprising that ESG seems to have gained an even stronger foothold.

    Geff Gebler | 18th May 2020 | More
    Is risk management the new black?

    After years of ever-increasing focus on returns to the extent that even fixed income allocations got caught in the vortex, there is a sobering reassessment of the risk profile across a portfolio.

    Geff Gebler | 11th May 2020 | More
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