recession

“Like a good wine, the best vintages in private markets often come from challenging environments,” Franklin Templeton’s Tony Davidow says, predicting the recent dysfunction markets have endured could mean a strong vintage year for private equity.

The chief economist says rapidly falling inflation, high savings levels and a lack of excess are among the reasons this pivotal moment could pass without the major downturn that many have long dreaded. But AMP still puts recession odds at 50/50, and rate cuts will likely need to precede any growth rebound.

As the economy tilts toward recession, portfolio analysts are turning towards sectors and companies that handle cloudy conditions better than most. Healthcare, energy, consumer staples and utilities come into focus, while cyclical sector companies lose favour.

Fear of an impending recession in the US has been hashed out for more than 18 months now, says Francis Gannon. The reasons are myriad, but not enough people are talking about what shape a recovery would take and how investors should position themselves.

AMP recently promoted senior economist Diana Mousina to a new role, deputy chief economist, in recognition of her achievements and succession path. Like other economists, Mousina sees a recession on the cards for Australia, although the timeline may be longer than many hope.

Basing an investment strategy on the Goldilocks investment markets of the last 35 years gives rise to considerable risk, writes Michael Block, and now might be the time to get out of growth assets.

Turnaround: markets look past recession to the future, AMP in hot demand, another positive lead ahead The ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) staged a remarkable recovery, adding 1.8% even as we received confirmation that the economy had contracted by 7% in the June quarter. The rally was broad-based with industrials and materials improving on the back of…

The world economy is teetering on a knife edge: the Chinese and Indian economies were slowing even before the COVID-19 Coronavirus, and as Australia was recovering from one of its worst bushfires.